This discussion may be the result of “being so preoccupied with whether or not they could to think if they should.” That may be a question for a different article. Put simply, it is hard to see the distinction between the two forums. At the end of the day, these markets include placing money on candidates based on their odds with either losses or gains that are realized. Although scholars are divided as to whether there is really a difference between these two markets, arguably the overall results are the same. Two of the largest in the country, PredictIt and the University of Iowa’s Electronic Markets, limit the amount of money that can be invested at any time, and all data from the markets is used for research purposes. While direct wagering on elections is illegal, predictive markets allowing “investing” in political outcomes have been operating within the United States since 1993. That’s because, in West Virginia, it is “unlawful to bet or wager money or other thing of value on any election held in state.” It turns out that’s a common restriction across the fifty states.
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Įven though initial approval was given to West Virginia’s Sportsbooks, Mac Warner, West Virginia’s Secretary of State, quickly shut down the idea and revoked the approval. That number is nearly six times higher than the percentage of new betters across all other markets offered that year. In Europe, 12 percent of all wagers placed on the 2016 election were new betters. Thus, political gambling is hugely popular with first time betters. American democracy, on the other hand, affects everyone in this country. That is because, although sports are hugely popular in the United States, they do not affect everyone. Those same projections expected nearly double the wagers on the Presidential election than were placed on Super Bowl LIV. Forecasts suggest that presidential election gambling would produce $1.1 million in new wagers and generating $150 thousand in new tax revenue for West Virginia alone. Opening political markets in the United States is a massive opportunity for states as well. International gambling websites like InTrade and BetFair became popular in 2012, and the 2016 election brought in record numbers of bets and revenue.
īetting on elections is “nothing new” internationally. On April 7, the state lottery approved each of the markets. In these conversations, it was taken as a given that gambling on state and local elections was not allowed. In the beginning of April 2020, American sportsbooks FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM each reached out to West Virginia’s Lottery for approval to accept bets in “political market.” Specifically, DraftKings hoped to accept bets on four markets: (1) Winner – Presidential Election (2) Winning Party Overall (3) Over/Under seats for each Party – Senate Over/Under for each Party – House Over/Under number of States won (4) Over/Under Electoral College Votes Obtained and Turnout percentage.
It turns out, there is no way to shut down American ingenuity. Throughout the country, newly developed and well-established sportsbooks alike began facing a question suddenly on the lips of many small businesses owners: How will we stay in business? In North Carolina alone, sports gambling was expected to bring in $14 million to casinos and $1 million in tax revenues. When sports shut down, however, that multimillion-dollar gambling industry was also removed from the equation. Instead, American gamblers have increasingly wagered on sporting events as their chosen form of entertainment. Internationally, online poker tournaments set records for participation and prize pools, though such gambling is virtually illegal in the United States.
Online resources, available from the safety of our own homes, have become the only connection to the outside world. Millions of Americans would be shut in their homes to flatten the curve but were left without some unifying outlet of entertainment. By March 12, however, state and national social distancing guidelines created “The day the sports world stopped.” In the coming days, restaurants and bars would shut down and states across the country would shut down all non-essential businesses.
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When COVID-19 struck, sports were in full swing: college basketball was entering its postseason, the NBA, MLS, and NHL were mid-season, and Major League Baseball was in the middle of Spring Training. One of the more interesting twists of fate in the midst of this global crisis was the end of sports in America. The spread of COVID-19 has turned the entire world upside down and has transformed the economy in a way we have never seen before. So far, 2020 has felt like an eternity and yet we are just four months in.
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